First Crypto Bull Market Since 2020 May Have Started: Macro Cycle and Key Resistance Analysis
Analyzing key turning stages and volatility risks in crypto markets, from macro cycles and Bitcoin weekly resistance to altcoin accumulation zones.
The current crypto market is at a juncture where macro cycle shifts and key technical resistance converge. The copper-gold ratio has bottomed and rebounded, and PMI economic expansion data has risen, suggesting the business cycle may be entering an expansion phase. This could mark the first crypto bull market driven by economic expansion since 2020. Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces strong resistance from the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart, with both short-term pullback pressure and long-term upside potential. This article, based on macro indicators and multi-asset technicals, outlines the current market structure and potential evolution paths.
#Macro Background: Economic Expansion Cycle Begins, Crypto Bull Market Logic Shifts
Historically, major crypto asset rallies have been highly correlated with economic expansion cycles. Currently, the copper-gold ratio has rebounded from its bottom, and the PMI index has broken above 55, indicating that the real economy has entered an expansion zone. This shift differs from the 2023-2024 rebound, which was primarily driven by ETF expectations and policy sentiment without fundamental support. By contrast, the liquidity improvement and higher risk appetite brought by the current economic expansion may provide more sustainable upward momentum for crypto assets.
Further observing the BTC/gold ratio, previous rebounds have not truly broken above prior highs, indicating that the crypto market has not yet experienced a genuine economic expansion bull market. If macro expansion continues, this ratio is likely to hit new all-time highs, corresponding to an overall strong cycle for crypto assets.
#Bitcoin Technicals: Key Resistance Levels and Pullback Scenarios
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is testing the 50-week moving average (around $80,000), which also forms resistance confluence with the 200-week moving average. Historically, in February 2023, Bitcoin touched similar resistance before quickly pulling back to the 20-week moving average, which provided support and was followed by an uptrend. Currently, the 20-week moving average is around $70,000, acting as the first short-term support area.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken above the 200-day moving average, but such breakouts often require a retest for confirmation. If the price fails to hold above $80,000, a pullback toward $70,000 or even lower areas is possible. Conversely, if it breaks through this resistance with strong volume, the $85,000-$90,000 range will become the next area to watch. Increased short-term volatility is normal, and investors should be wary of rapid reversals.
#Ethereum and ETH/BTC: Structural Choices in Resistance Zone
Ethereum's weekly chart similarly faces dual resistance from the 200-week and 50-week moving averages, with the current price below this zone. In the short term, if resistance holds, pullback support levels to watch are around $2,100, $2,000, and $1,900. On the daily chart, ETH may consolidate sideways or pull back after breaking above the 200-day moving average to digest prior gains.
The ETH/BTC ratio has broken above its long-term downtrend line and entered a structural consolidation phase similar to the period before the previous bull market started. If it can oscillate between the 50-week and 20-week moving averages afterward, it may initiate a strong outperformance against Bitcoin, thereby driving overall activity in the altcoin market.
#Altcoin Market: Low-Risk Accumulation Zone and Potential Opportunities
Risk models for multiple major altcoins indicate that they have entered a low-risk accumulation zone similar to 2023. Assets such as Solana, Cardano, and SUI face resistance from the 20/50-week moving averages on weekly charts. In the short term, they may continue to consolidate or pull back to lows, but from a medium-term perspective, accumulation characteristics are evident.
During economic expansion cycles, altcoins tend to exhibit higher volatility and elasticity. If macro conditions continue to improve, these assets may see stronger upward momentum. However, high volatility also means higher drawdown risk. Investors should allocate positions appropriately based on their own risk tolerance, avoiding over-concentration or excessive leverage.
#Strategy Implications: Managing Risk Amid Volatility
The market is currently in a phase where macro turning points and key technical levels overlap, with short-term direction uncertain. On the downside, if Bitcoin loses the $70,000 level, it may test lower support areas. On the upside, breaking above $80,000 would confirm a weekly trend reversal. For long-term investors, the current low-risk accumulation zone may provide a window for phased positioning. For short-term traders, close attention should be paid to the holding or breaking of key support and resistance levels, with strict stop-losses in place.
Overall, the economic expansion cycle provides macro support for the crypto market that differs from previous periods, but short-term volatility is hard to avoid. Staying cautious, diversifying allocations, and avoiding chasing rallies or selling panics are core principles for navigating the current market environment.
Ready to try? Test the strategy on MSX with small positions. Educational content only — not investment advice.